New New Hampshire Numbers Favor Sununu; Questions Remain

New numbers from New Hampshire show Sen. John Sununu much closer to former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen than previous polls, which showed Shaheen with about a 20 point lead.

Some are taking this as good news, but I am less certain.  That is a dramatic shift in numbers for a race without an explination needs to be explained.  I don’t know whether these numbers are wrong and the others are right, but the huge shift needs to be accounted for, one way or the other.

One Response to “New New Hampshire Numbers Favor Sununu; Questions Remain”

  1. SDM Says:

    I’d argue the explanation is pretty simple: four months ago, respondents were faced with some so-so options for a Senate race, and when Shaheen’s name came up, they responded with surprise: “Oh, Shaheen, right. Yeah, her.” Four months later, they’ve been bombarded with news that Shaheen might run and are a little more used to the idea. Sununu’s numbers aren’t strikingly higher than they were in the older polls (high 30s to low 40s is just noise); the numbers for Shaheen just fell from “name recognizable as strong Democratic candidate” levels to “actual politician running for office” levels.

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