First Quarter Filings

The Hill has an excellent roundup of Senate fundraising numbers for the first quarter.

Some observations:

Arizona - Jim Pederson has not invested the money that he would have needed to make this competitive.  He has already spent over $1 million and has fallen in the polls.  The Democrats might have had a chance to win this.  That is no longer the case.

Florida - Rep. Katherine Harris has invested only $3 million of the $10 million that she promised to invest.  She’s fading fast.  Unless she comes up with the other $7 million in a hurry, or drops out, this race is a missed opportunity.

Missouri - Claire McCaskill matched Sen. Jim Talent’s first quarter fundraising.  She’ll have “enough to compete”, but with Talent still has more than a 2:1 advantage in cash on hand.  That’s tough for anyone to compete with.

Montana - Although many continue to consider Sen. Conrad Burns vulnerable, he has a nearly 3:1 cash on hand on his nearest, scandal plagued opponent John Morrison.  Polls, shmolls, incumbents tend to stay put for a reason.  Burns has more than enough money to promote himself while telling the state just how liberal and corrupt his opponent is.

Nebraska - Sen. Nelson a 5:1 advantage in cash on hand over his nearest Republican rival.  If Pete Ricketts is serious about challenging for the seat, then it’s time to pony up with his own fortune, eliminate his GOP rivals, and focus on the incumbent.

New Jersey - The scandal-plagued Sen. Robert Menendez maintains a 3:1 advantage over challenger Tom Kean.  Kean raised over $1.5 million in the first quarter, a rate that should keep him competitive.  Even so, the incumbent’s advantage along with the fact that the default vote in the state is Democrat, makes this an uphill fight for Kean.

Pennsylvania - Sen. Santorum leads Casey by a 2:1 margin, but Casey is raising money at a sufficient clip to take down the traitorous incumbent.  Both have exceptionally high burn rates.

Tennessee - The fox in the hen house former Rep. Bob Corker continues to lead his more conservative rivals for the GOP nomination.  Van Hilleary outraised Ed Bryant and maintains a small lead in the money race, but Bryant leads in money that can legally be spent in the Republican Primary.  This once again raises the question, “Why is Van Hilleary still in this race?”

Washington - Republican Challenger Mike McGavick is raising money at a good clip, but has a long way to go to be able to compete with incumbent Maria Cantwell.  To defeat the incumbent, he will have to close the cash on hand gap by at least a third in the second quarter, which will likely require raising more than $2 million.


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