New New Hampshire Numbers Favor Sununu; Questions Remain
New numbers from New Hampshire show Sen. John Sununu much closer to former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen than previous polls, which showed Shaheen with about a 20 point lead.
Some are taking this as good news, but I am less certain. That is a dramatic shift in numbers for a race without an explination needs to be explained. I don’t know whether these numbers are wrong and the others are right, but the huge shift needs to be accounted for, one way or the other.
September 19th, 2007 at 4:37 pm
I’d argue the explanation is pretty simple: four months ago, respondents were faced with some so-so options for a Senate race, and when Shaheen’s name came up, they responded with surprise: “Oh, Shaheen, right. Yeah, her.” Four months later, they’ve been bombarded with news that Shaheen might run and are a little more used to the idea. Sununu’s numbers aren’t strikingly higher than they were in the older polls (high 30s to low 40s is just noise); the numbers for Shaheen just fell from “name recognizable as strong Democratic candidate” levels to “actual politician running for office” levels.