Stumbo Forms Exploratory Committee
Kentucky Democrats may finally have found a serious challenger to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Attorney General Greg Stumbo has formed an exploratory committee to examine an underdog bid against the GOP leader. While not the Democrats’ top recruiting target, Stumbo cannot be overlooked.
McConnell is seeking his fourth reelection and enters the race with substantial advantages in place. Actually, he has over $5.8 million advantages. Not only is that the amount that he had in the bank at the end of June, but Stumbo is also a remarkably poor fundraiser, having never managed to raise more than $400,000 for any of his races.
Kentucky is also a Republican state, and any Republican Presidential candidate will carry some coattails. It is socially conservative and pro-military as well. If votes for Senate were based on which Party voters wanted to control the Senate, this would not be a race.
Unfortunately for McConnell, the situation is more complicated than that. For starters, Stumbo has been elected statewide already. More importantly, the national and state environments are poor for Republicans. The Iraq war continues to drag on and weigh down Republicans nationally. What’s more, Democrats have substantially outraised Republicans and are anxious to expand what is an unusually small playing field.
In Kentucky, the Republican Party continues to have internal problems, most notably starting at the top with Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who is all but certain to get thumped this fall. McConnell himself is not attached to those scandals, but it remains to be seen whether the voters will notice. Also, Democrats stole a House seat last year when Rep. Northup lost her reelection bid. These factors don’t neutralize the GOP bent entirely, but the Democrat momentum does serve to minimie it.
Stumbo’s potential candidacy will depend upon a perfect storm. First, the national environment must remain as bad it is for Republicans. In particular, any improvement in the situation in Iraq could alone be a death knell to his campaign. Second, Democrats must expand the playing field into other states as well, thus maximizing their national advantage by forcing Republicans to pick and choose in which races we will play defense and in which incumbents must fend for themselves while the Democrat money advantage allows them to play where they choose. Finally, Stumbo will have to prove himself a stronger fundraiser and candidate than he has in the past. $400,000 won’t cut it, and McConnell will easily be the strongest candidate he has ever faced.
In short, defeating a Senate Minority Leader in a state that favors his Party is no easy task. Stumbo has his work cut out for him, but his candidacy is not as far-fetched as those of other Democrats. McConnell will likely win reelection, but the certainty of that can no longer be considered absolute.