Things that make you go “Hmmmm”
Less than a week after the release of the first poll in a long time showing Rep. Katherine Harris closing the gap on Sen. Bill Nelson, two new polls have been released showing Harris trailing by as much as ever. While the two polls together suggest that the race has not yet closed to single digits, aspects of each poll suggest that they should be taken with a grain of salt. Meanwhile, the Harris camp has said that the race is actually in single digits.
Strategic Vision is notorious for obtaining the results it seeks. For example, it showed the 2004 Washington Presidential and Senatorial races to be very competitive while neither turned out to be. This poll has to make one wonder what behind-the-scenes efforts are still being made to recruit a candidate more to the establishment’s liking. What’s more, the company’s polls ask far too many questions, including questions that the overwhelming majority of voters cannot possibly answer intelligently, such as whether they approve of Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Bronson’s job performance. A better question would have been whether they could name the Agriculture Commissioner. This is not a knock on the state’s voters, but most people do not spend their lives obsessing over the daily duties of every elected official. Nelson v. Harris was the thirty-sixth question on the survey. As political observers know, most respondents by the thirty-sixth question are simply trying to get the pollster off the phone. SV clearly needs to review its polling methodology if it wants to have credibility as a polling firm rather than a partisan organization.
The Quinnipiac numbers seem problematic for two reasons. The first is that they show Katherine Harris running at just 62% among Republicans. Though fairly popular, Nelson is not the the type of Senator who can hold his opponent anywhere close to that low among members of her own Party. The related problem is that the poll shows Nelson leading in all parts of the state, including holding a 44-37% lead in the Panhandle and a 47-37% lead in the southwest. Both President Bush and Sen. Martinez raked up huge margins in these areas, winning their election on the strength of victory there. It is entirely believable that Harris is not doing as well there as Bush and Martinez. Sizable leads for Nelson, though, are simply not credible. It is ludicrous to suggest that Republican voters would oppose Harris because she did her job and, in doing so, helped put the man they voted for in office. There is no explanation at all for Harris’s poor polling in these areas, which makes one wonder whether they are accurate. In fairness to Quinnipiac, they included the geographical breakdown of their poll. In doing so, though they leave plenty of questions about the accuracy of the poll.
Taken together, the two polls show that Harris still has a sizable gap to close. They also show, though, that Harris has a great opportunity to do it. Nelson is the favorite, but not the prohibitive favorite. Harris need not spend time trying to reach “swing” voters. Instead, she can win the election by securing the votes of those who have been reliably voting Republican for the last decade. These voters are Harris’s for the taking. This election will turn on how many of them she can take. As such, it would be shocking if Nelson cracked 52%, and one can expect this race to close steadily between now and November.