Good ‘News’ in OH, PA
Rasmussen’s latest polls show encouraging results in Ohio and Pennsylvania. In the Buckeye state, DeWine has increased his lead over Rep. Sherrod Brown by four points. This comes in the wake of the withdrawal of Brown’s primary opponent Paul Hackett, which he alleged was the result of betrayal by Party leaders. The dust-up was not what Democrats needed as they attempt to steal this seat and claw their way back up to 50.
While the poll indicates that only forty percent of voters followed the story at all, it is doubtful that this is reflective of the real impact of the story. As with the question as to whether Hackett’s decision resulted from a Democrat betrayal, chances are that voters did not pay sufficient attention to the story to forumlate an opinion about it. The headlines, though, help to form general impressions, and the story was definitely a negative for Democrats. By November, the story will be forgotten by all but those who had already decided on the candidate for whom they would vote, but its impact will remain as part of the voters’ general impression of Sherrod Brown and his Party.
In Pennsylvania, Rasmussen now has the traitor down 16 and Casey over 50. If Casey were the incumbent, most would consider this race over. Since that position belongs to Mudd, this one isn’t quite over. Even so, a 38/47 favorable/unfavorable rating for the incumbent means he has a ton of work to do to overcome the deficit. The President’s poor numbers also bode poorly for the incumbent.
What these polls don’t indicate, and can’t indicate, is the impact of the lack of loyalty that the incumbents have shown to their constituencies. Samuel Mudd’s endorsement of Arlen Specter over Pat Toomey was a betrayal of Machiavellian proportions, showing that he really does not care about the agenda of his most ardent supporters. While the poll reflects a mass abandonment of the incumbent, it does not account for the motivation of the few who still support him. GOP turnout is likely to be depressed as those who had supported him in the past show indifference, perhaps even opposition, to his reelection.
In Ohio, DeWine has a similar problem, but it does not run as deep. DeWine has a history of disappointing conservatives in the state and is not popular among social conservatives and other parts of the GOP base. There was frequent talk of a primary challenge, and the NRA even publicly discussed the possibility of endorsing Paul Hackett had he been the Democrat nominee. Internal scandal among the state-level GOP will also depress Republican turnout. DeWine’s challenge is to portray his opponent as dangerously liberal. It is doubtful whether any poll other than the one on Election Day will effectively reflect that. Regardless of how effective that effort is, this poll is encouraging for DeWine.